RED WAVE FROM HERITAGE

[carol ann parisi]

 

Indicators of a Red Wave

 

There continue to be indicators that a “red wave” is coming next week. The question remains how large of a majority Republicans could win in the House, and is now becoming how many seats Republicans could gain in a Senate majority (it could range between 51 and 54 seats).

 

Elections in states like Connecticut and Washington suggest there will be many seats to watch on election night. Connecticut’s fifth congressional district, which Biden won by 11 points in 2020, is nearly tied in the polls currently. The fact that Democrats are pouring money into the U.S. Senate race in Washington between Tiffany Smiley and Sen. Patty Murray shows they are nervous. One factor to watch will be the timing of when ballots were cast with early voting and absentees.

 

>>> Check out our partner organization, Sentinel Action Fund to see some ads running to help conservative candidates win, and if you were on the phone last night when we played the new New Hampshire ad for the Zoom audience, check that ad out here: Maggie Hassan - Vote Your Thermostat.

 

What to Watch in the States

 

There are 36 states this fall with governor’s races on the ballot. One thing to watch is states that gain or lose a trifecta. A “trifecta” is when one party controls the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the legislature. Currently there are 23 Republican trifectas, and 14 Democrat trifectas.

 

Some states to watch are:

 

Michigan: Challenger Tudor Dixon (R) has continued to gain ground on incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer (D). Republicans currently control both chambers of the legislature.

 

Minnesota: Recent polling shows this race between incumbent governor Tim Walz (D) and Scott Jensen (R) to be rather close. The races to control both chambers of the legislature are also very close, which are currently split between the parties (Republicans hold the Senate and Democrats control the House).

 

Nevada: Democrats currently hold a trifecta, which they could lose. Incumbent governor Steve Sisolak (D) is being challenged by Joe Lombardo (R), and this race is extremely tight.

 

New York: Challenger Lee Zeldin (R) has been creeping closer and closer to incumbent Kathy Hochul (D) in the polls. This race could be a toss-up, and could cost Democrats a trifecta.

 

Pennsylvania: Republicans currently control both chambers of the legislature. If Doug Mastriano (R) were to win against Josh Shapiro, it could gain Republicans a trifecta in this state.

 

Wisconsin: It is an extremely close race between incumbent governor Tony Evers (D) and Tim Michels. Republicans control both chambers of the legislature, and could gain a trifecta in this state.

 

It’s a reminder to not just look at individual races, but also that majorities make policy.

 

>> If you have voted absentee and want to check the status of your ballot, Ballotpedia has links for information for each state here.

 

Thanks for your tireless work. 6 days until election day!