william,
Now that Justice Prosser is set for a dominant win in Wisconsin over leftist Attorney Kloppenburg, we’re able to look at the numbers and get a glimpse of what might be on the horizon for 2012.
Wisconsin provides solid evidence that in 2012 Obama stands to lose at least 8 states that he won in 2008. That is, if:
a) Wisconsin’s numbers turn out to be a trend
b) Republicans don’t help a moderate “old school” candidate out of the primary
Think about it… Barack Obama took Wisconsin by 13.9% in 2008. In both 2006 and 2008 Democrats pretty much dominated the election cycles. Remember, Wisconsin is not necessarily known for its heavy lean towards Republicans.
Actually, Wisconsin is known for quite the opposite. In fact, Wisconsin is known for heavily union influenced elections and Democrat strongholds.
In 2012, however, Ron Johnson delivered a stunning defeat to Democrat Russ Feingold to take the Senate seat. Republicans took House seats, and of course… Scott Walker moved into the Governor’s mansion.
With Wisconsin being heavy on the union influence, more Democrat Historically and a strong Obama state in 2008, it’s a good state to use as a measure going into 2012.
Obama won by 13.9% in 2008 and the state turned the other direction in 2010. The unions couldn’t beat Prosser and they lost big time in 2010. It’s safe to say Wisconsin may very well go red in 2012.
Let’s be conservative and suggest the trend will go the same way in states where Obama’s margin was less than 10% in 2008. In that scenario, the following states are in play.
-Colorado
-Florida
-Indiana
-Iowa
-New Hampshire
-North Carolina
-Ohio
-Virginia
If Obama is losing this much ground in a state like Wisconsin, I don’t see how he holds on to states like Florida where he won by just 2.81% in 2008.
In my previous posts I’ve written Colorado off as a “that would be nice but let’s find a way around it” battleground state. But under this model, Colorado is ripe to go red as well!
Then you have states like Nevada, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, where Obama won by more than 10%, but less than Wisconsin’s 13.9%.
Based on my models, if Obama still held on to Wisconsin, Nevada, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, but lost the other 8 states… Republicans would win with 284 electoral votes.
That’s a pretty harsh reality for Democrats. My guess is a big part of their strategy right now is making sure the right candidate doesn’t come out of the GOP primary. Because if we do get the right candidate…
…I don’t see how Obama keeps the White House.
Until next week.
For Liberty,
-Eric Odom
For Liberty,
-Eric Odom
|
